We Have a 1% Chance to Avoid a World Where One Player Decides If You Deserve AI Access
The Liberman brothers explained why time is running out.
We’re at a breaking point
Three years ago, a behind-closed-doors meeting in Silicon Valley defined the future of AI. OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, and the US government struck an informal pact on GPU distribution. That was the moment it became clear: artificial intelligence isn’t just a technology — it’s the new oil of the 21st century.
This isn’t a bubble, it’s a transformation
Yes, 98% of AI startups will die. But that’s normal — venture capital has always worked this way. Amazon also dropped 98% in 2000. The difference is that people are PAYING now — $20/month for ChatGPT because they see real value. OpenAI grew from $1B to $15B in revenue in a single year. History has never seen that kind of growth rate.
A new bipolar system is forming
The US controls 90% of the world’s AI compute. China is strangled by sanctions, getting chips smuggled through Singapore and Malaysia. Every other country is bargaining for GPU scraps in geopolitical deals. Nvidia has become the key to national security.
The main threat: centralized control
The world is moving toward a scenario where 5 American companies — OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Meta, xAI — control all of AI. And the US government controls those companies. Which means someone gets to decide whether you’re “behaving well enough” to be granted access to the technology.
The alternative path: decentralization
Bitcoin showed the way. Its infrastructure (26 GW) is already larger than all AI giants combined. Over 15 years, mining efficiency improved 300,000x through competition among thousands of independent players. Apply that same model to AI — nobody controls it, anyone can improve it, superintelligence becomes accessible to everyone and nearly free.
What happens next?
The Libermans give a 99% chance to US dominance and 1% to decentralization. But that 1% is our only shot at not ending up in a world where technological progress is controlled from a single center. The future is already here — it’s just not evenly distributed. And right now is when it gets decided.